On one hand, geeks like me are having the times of our lives. “AI” is such a mind-blowing, empowering tool that it is hard to understate its importance. Right from my college days, I’ve loved fiddling with HTML to make websites, learning Photoshop to make posters, writing scripts to tweak or automate things on my PC. AI takes that and puts it on steroids. I’ve never done programming professionally and don’t care about the code quality of my home/hobby projects, I’m more attached to the outcome than the craft. So I land on the side of the fence of people who feel massively empowered.
- It has unlocked my homelab where I’m self-hosting our photos, blocking trackers, and more. Things that would’ve taken me many months between figuring out Docker and Linux commands and navigating all the errors.
- I even have custom backup scripts to back up my family photos every night, running without me learning cron or the OneDrive API.
- I’ve been able to joyfully update my website with my chosen aesthetic and show off my library of read books without having to learn CSS or handle API calls and timeouts.
All of this would’ve been impossible earlier. That I’ve been able to do this in a few months as a parent doing childcare feels insane to me. It feels miraculous.
On the other hand, we are in the worst of times in the tech industry. The internet, mobile, and cloud waves that merged into one long multi-decade tech boom are over. We already had the signs when mobile phone (handset) sales started to slow down since 2016 or so. The growth days were coming to a halt, and the industry was maturing — everyone who could buy a phone and internet connection had one. We would have to change tracks and become another big entrenched but slow growth industry like energy or pharma.
Covid gave the industry an illusory, temporary respite; then rising interest rates, inflation, war, etc. crushed the financial cushions that allowed paying everyone heaps of money while also raking in huge margins. The glory days were firmly over and it’s been a non-stop beating to tech workers since 2023.
Maturing companies and industries actually have many options to handle the situation. They can reset expectations around growth, retrain workers, reduce hours, etc. but Silicon Valley dances to the tune of Wall St. and capitalism. So we preach eternal growth, tweak the spreadsheets and lay off the people till we meet market guidance. This was happening before AI, but the AI-hype gives cover for slowing businesses to claim false AI efficiency gains (“AI-washing”) and financially engineer growth. Meanwhile, AI companies are raising gobsmacking amounts of money. Apart from a lucky few inside the bubble, the average tech employee is counting down the days till they get laid off. If you’re financially stressed, an immigrant, or vulnerable for other reasons, this can completely fuck up your sanity. We’re past “this is fine” and are now firmly in “this is hell”.
When Dickens wrote “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…” he was contrasting the opulence of the aristocracy with the suffering of the peasantry. Today while average Joes worry about inflation, fuel prices, and job losses, AI shills preach AGI utopia and wax eloquent about how life is just an agentic workflow.
Time is one big circle.
Hopefully this too shall pass, and hopefully without causing permanent damage.