An addendum to “Why move to Signal” I was listening in on Clubhouse the other day. The topic was something like “Hot takes on Privacy, Signal and Whatsapp“. The consensus opinion which literally every person stated was that nothing will change . So much for hot takes. Seemed like another example of “All anti-conformists look alike” aka “I, too, am contrarian”. The reasons cited for Whatsapp sticking around were

• Network effects - Everyone and everything is already here.
• Inertia - Habits will be hard to change. 
• People don’t care about about privacy all that much especially in India - The phrase (अमीर लोगों के चोंचले) struck a chord. Roughly translates to problems of the rich/first world problems. 
• Muscle memory - People know exactly how Whatsapp and things inside it work
• Whatsapp is more than messaging - People share bank account numbers, passwords, contacts, etc. on Whatsapp and it’s also a database. Similarly with family/other photos
• Backups are easier on Whatsapp I partially agree. Signal isn’t going to swallow Whatsapp in the short-run but there’s case to be made for the long run. Additionally, I think the framing around privacy will not be the primary driver of Signal’s success.  Let’s talk the bull case for Signal

Inertia exists, but until a point.

Not too long ago, people were saying things like this: “ QR codes have largely failed in western markets, but in China, the mass adoption of social communications app WeChat – with its embedded QR reader software – means no brand can market without them“
Here in 2021, I can tell you. QR Codes are everywhere in urban India. Apparently, they’re seeing good adoption in Europe . I’ve seen moderate QR adoption in the Valley too. That’s a far cry from “failed in western markets“.

Inertia has a shelf life. Things get old, boring, inefficient, or sometimes just forgotten by the new generation. Facebook was a cool social network when I joined it 2008, it’s seen as an uncool and old network full of misinformation today . When network effects unravel, they unravel just as quickly.

The new generation comes and picks the best thing, bearing no inertia. When people are sufficiently bored/annoyed at something, they’ll switch. This is most easily done for digital products. 

Ugg. Facebook.

I don’t think privacy will be the most significant reason for most people to switchover. Why do people pick apps? Normal people don’t do feature analysis; they just use what their friends are using. The behaviour is driven by peers and social groups . Unfortunately, Facebook has played it’s hand here. It become increasingly developed negative brand connotations for misinformation, privacy violation and addiction . And in a total masterstroke, Facebook has been more aggressive about linking Instagram and Whatsapp with the Facebook brand. My generation is still grappling with the consequences of over-sharing, but Gen Z and beyond are warned of the dangers, becoming more savvy about what and how they share . Analogously, by the time I grew up it was common knowledge that smoking is bad, this was not the consensus a generation ago. So every new person using a smartphone for the first time, is more aware of the dangers of addiction, ovesharing, privacy, etc. and is less likely to use Faceboook’s products. it’ll increasingly become the uggh choice to make.

Marketing a modern religion

The religions of the modern world are the Apple and the iPhone, being hot, doing keto, being sugar-free, hustling, etc. Very few people are actually maintaining a fitness routine but a hella lot more are talking about it . The true believers practise, the signallers practice a little while making sure everyone knows they’re practising and the rest of us have to suffer the signallers and wonder if we’re doing something wrong . I think Apple is successfully pushing a new religion - privacy. As we enter iPhone model numbers in double digits, the drumbeat of the “the best iPhone ever made” sounds ever more banal as we just get more pixels and megapixels . Apple has (very smartly) latched onto Privacy as as point of differentiation for its products. Something it can truly offer as it builds it own OS, hardware and software . Apple is spending huge marketing dollars letting everyone their stance on privacy . The promises are not hollow as Apple has made bold moves to improve the privacy of Apple’s customers - removing trackers in Safari, removing IDFA in iOS, taking a public stance against unlocking the iPhone for the FBI and more. I expect to privacy become another status signal, another in the list of modern religions . Not everyone will practice it, but a lof of fuss will be made about it.

Macro environment

People lament how the early internet was diverse; rife with social networks, we had tons of web hosts and once even multiple search engines. Now search is just Google, Facebook dominates social and the internet is just another thing running on AWS . Even in the early 2010′s in India, we had multiple messengers competing - Viber, Whatsapp, Nimbuzz, Tango all had their runs with Whatsapp emerging the winner. But this is potentially cyclical . We’ve had aggregation, bundling and centralisation, the pendulum will swing towards dis-aggregation, unbundling and decentralisation.

You can say the early signs are here. Social media is getting fragmented between Telegram, Slack, Discord, Twitch, etc. A lot of human interaction via the internet has now retreated into a dark forest . Telegram recently crossed 500 million users. DuckDuckGo crossed 100 million searches a day . Regulators are increasing training their eyes on “Big Tech” and looking to rein the companies. The there’s the whole crazy world of bitcoin and crypto . All of this reflects a changing environment, the big companies will likely dominate for another decade but the seeds for the next big things are being sown now.

Until recently, it would have been unthinkable to even bother with another messaging app. But Telegram has been growing rapidly with the better features and a tolerance for piracy . It got a huge boost because of crypto communities and their need for large groups. Signal is currently benefiting from bungled up messaging from Facebook . All of these are actually options now. Multi-homing behaviour (a fancy way of saying using multiple apps) has emerged and is here to stay. Maybe it’s not long until the defaults change.