Silicon Valley without the American Empire

Silicon Valley is celebrated as the home of technological innovation — the place where inventors create brilliant things that dazzle the world. But I believe this is more mythology than reality . What we actually celebrate is wild business success, much of which rests on a single macro factor: Silicon Valley exists within the American empire and benefits in multiple ways from it.

Some aspects:

Capital access: Silicon Valley has an outrageously disproportionate access to financial capital. Talk to any entrepreneur outside the Valley and you will hear stories of a very different attitude toward funding . Whether it’s venture capitalists getting money from pension funds or late-stage companies raising capital from other countries’ sovereign wealth funds, capital flows much more easily here . This ease of access is downstream of the surplus built from the reach of the American financial empire. Why would Saudi Arabia and European oligarchs be OK with investing in Silicon Valley companies? Because they are already bought into the petrodollar system.
Market access: Silicon Valley — especially after the internet arrived — has global market access. Huge business success is often more contingent on distribution than on product innovation alone.
Talent access: People want to migrate to the US because of the greater opportunities, capital availability, and other advantages that come from being inside the empire.

Now that the USA is rethinking its place in the world, Brand America is set to take a hit. As a result, the ceiling for Silicon Valley company success becomes much lower . Capital access will decline, market access will shrink, and talent will be harder to attract — leading to a less rosy picture for Valley firms.

How will this new landscape look? There are hints already:

Free(er) markets: Phones and electric vehicles (EVs) are a good example. China dominates phones, whether directly or indirectly (through Apple). BYD is the leading car brand by market share in many countries . As Chinese firms compete harder and trust in China grows, American firms like Tesla will no longer have a free run at the market. The same dynamic will play out in more industries.
Fragmentation: The Visa/Mastercard duopoly has been severely challenged in the past decade. Between UnionPay and mobile app payments in China, UPI in India, Pix in Brazil, and more, the stranglehold Visa and Mastercard have in select Western markets doesn’t exist across the larger globe . Public payment systems like UPI and UnionPay have not just provided competition — they have changed the paradigm entirely.
Innovation and competition: Whether it’s Namma Yatri changing the model of online cab hailing and taking share from Uber, Deepseek inventing reasoning models, or Huawei developing triple-folding phones, the loss of distribution monopolies for American firms means innovation from across the globe can blossom.

This shift can be a good thing or a bad thing, depending on the paths countries and industries take. If we get more open markets, with Chinese and American firms competing harder across the globe, it will be a wonderful thing for people and countries as consumers . If we get a Cold War–type situation where every country picks a side (USA vs. China) and shuts out the other, it will be a bad thing. Time will tell.